Dubai March 2026: First Week Shows 44% Transaction Drop
The escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf region raises a critical question: how will it affect Dubai's real estate market? Let's look at the latest Dubai Land Department figures for the first week of March and compare them with February.
First week of March vs. first week of February
We're comparing an identical period — Monday the 2nd through Sunday the 8th — in both months. This gives us a full week with the same distribution of working and weekend days.
| Feb 2–8 | Mar 2–8 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total transactions | 5,256 | 3,173 | −40% |
| Sales | 4,309 | 2,399 | −44% |
| Sales volume | AED 14.21B | AED 8.26B | −42% |
| Average sale price | AED 3,297,741 | AED 3,444,332 | +4.4% |
Transaction counts dropped significantly, but the average price actually rose slightly by 4.4%. This suggests there's no panic selling — rather, smaller transactions have paused while larger deals continue.
Daily breakdown: start of the week hit hardest
A day-by-day view reveals an interesting pattern — Monday and Tuesday saw the deepest drops, with activity partially recovering toward the end of the week.
| Day | February (sales) | March (sales) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 785 | 358 | −54% |
| Tuesday | 836 | 420 | −50% |
| Wednesday | 879 | 472 | −46% |
| Thursday | 810 | 555 | −31% |
| Friday | 871 | 494 | −43% |
| Saturday | 114 | 79 | −31% |
| Sunday | 14 | 21 | +50% |
Thursday and Saturday showed a decline of "only" 31%. This could signal a gradual stabilization, but one week is too short to draw definitive conclusions.
Weekly trend: March week is the weakest since January
An average February week brought approximately 4,250 sales worth AED 15.2 billion. The March week with 2,399 sales is 44% below this average — clearly the weakest result across the entire tracked period.
| Week | Sales | Volume (AED B) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26 – Feb 1 | 4,642 | 18.19 |
| Feb 2–8 | 4,309 | 14.21 |
| Feb 9–15 | 4,517 | 18.76 |
| Feb 16–22 | 3,863 | 13.82 |
| Feb 23 – Mar 1 | 4,336 | 13.93 |
| Mar 2–8 | 2,399 | 8.26 |
What does this mean?
Two possible causes need to be distinguished:
1. Data lag. DLD registers transactions with a delay. Part of the decline may reflect administrative slowdown — government offices, notaries, and banks may have been operating in limited capacity. The actual number of closed deals could be higher than what we currently see in the register.
2. Real slowdown. Even accounting for lag, a 44% drop is significant. The key will be watching the second and third weeks of March. If volumes return to 4,000+ sales per week, this was a short-term pause. If they stay below 3,000, the market is responding to uncertainty.
Positive signal: The average sale price is holding and even rising slightly (+4.4%). There are no fire sales or price crashes. Dubai has historically shown resilience even in unstable periods — but the current situation warrants careful monitoring.
February 2026 in full numbers
For context — February was still a very strong month:
| Metric | February 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total transactions | 21,663 |
| Sales | 17,045 worth AED 60.8B |
| Average sale price | AED 3.57M |
| Most active areas | JVC (1,164), Al Yelayiss (916), Business Bay (759) |
What to watch next
In the coming weeks, we will focus on:
— Whether transaction volumes stabilize or the decline continues
— How asking prices respond — we track over 65,000 active listings
— Which areas are most affected and where prices are holding